Roughly a fifth of Canadian mortgages come up for renewal in 2026, most of them written when five-year fixed rates sat near 2%. Bank of Canada staff analysis puts the average payment increase for that cohort close to 20%.
The rule change that matters most
Until recently, moving your mortgage to a new lender at renewal meant re-qualifying at the stress-test rate, even though your existing lender could renew you without any test at all. That asymmetry kept borrowers captive and let incumbents quote lazily.
A straight switch — same balance, same remaining amortization, no new money — is now exempt. Change any of those three things and the test returns.
- Keeping the balance and amortization: exempt, shop freely.
- Adding $30,000 to renovate: that is a refinance, and the test applies.
- Extending amortization from 18 years back to 25: the test applies.
What the increase actually looks like
| Old rate | New rate | Old payment | New payment | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.99% | 4.19% | $2,523 | $3,070 | +$547 |
| 2.49% | 4.19% | $2,645 | $3,070 | +$425 |
| 2.99% | 4.49% | $2,769 | $3,152 | +$383 |
Four moves worth making before you sign
- Start 120 days out. Most lenders will hold a rate for four months, and you can keep shopping while it is held.
- Get a competing quote in writing. Renewal offers from your own lender improve materially when you have one.
- Do not extend amortization reflexively. It lowers the payment and raises lifetime interest sharply — and it costs you the stress-test exemption.
- Ask about the penalty structure, not just the rate. An interest-rate-differential penalty on a fixed mortgage can be many times a three-month-interest penalty on a variable.
If the new payment does not fit
Deal with it before renewal day, not after. Clearing a car loan or a card balance frees monthly room immediately. Extending amortization is the last resort, and it should be a deliberate choice with a number attached to it, not a default.
Run it on your own numbersBudget plannerRebuild the budget at the new payment before you commit.Figures are the published 2026 federal and provincial amounts at the time of writing. General information only, not financial, tax, or legal advice — see the methodology and disclaimer.